Will we avoid a shutdown?

Newell Normand
Wednesday, February 7th
Our guest, Brian Riedl, talks about pork spending is idolized by both parties and the way to avoid a shutdown is to adopt a budget of the year before.

Brian Riedel is a Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow. 

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Ryan revealed that the Manhattan institute's senior fellow hello welcome to the show Brian. You know Brian I mean this is going back and forth we can't come to consensus on issues and not only that we can't come to a consensus as to who's to blame as to why we keep having this Groundhog Day where we. Keep revisiting this government shutdown issue. Yeah you know it's. 80% of Americans. The government shut down according to a recent poll. The happening is. It would thirteen as well when the eagle one party decides to hold the spending bill hostage it would outside demand. He had 2013 in the Republicans how the spending bill hostage to wanting to repeal obamacare. And it's what the team Democrat held spending bill hostage to immigration reform. And probably that you ended up having to act out because the American people. Height of the spending bill being held hostage like this. So why is it that we just can't come to some resolution in I think you talk about this and having. A bill passed in congress that prohibits. This conduct in this activity so that we don't have to go through this charade all time. It actually get legislation. Senator Rob Portman who used to work for. We put out legislation. Every year since 2013 that would in government shutdown that would essentially say that. If you get to the end of the year you don't have new spending bills and place for the new year. You automatically get continuous laughter level but we do anyway. When they can have to get in new resolutions. That would just make it ought to make that nobody could hold up the bill and hold hostage for something else he would just say. What have you were spending last year you continued spending at bat you're until we finish the spending bills. Senator Portman put that on the floor at 2013. And the Republicans. And the Democrat voted against that and got defeated. You know because that it really highlights like when we're gone into the mid term elections here that. This would remove. The mr. reaction in smoke screens that are constantly sleight of hand it's constantly gone on. In congress' interaction with the media and trying to slant this issue a slant that. Exactly it would just. Get much what everybody it would make it easier for government agencies who could actually have some planning in he ought. It had a private not have to worry that they're gonna be below have their budget immediately following the bureau. It would. Individuals who depend on government services for a you know go to national parks or what ever know that the programs are gonna be there and it just. It would do would be exhaustion. Older feel you know every time you turn on the news is that look at congress there's. Hi why you fight been ball going on dial into the wider on the that it. Port government shut out. And that just leads to complete a Austrian. And a view that you know government is paralyzed an out of control. You know with the threats that go back and forth on this and that in the mix missed directions sometimes I get the feeling. That we actually have lost the identity of the issue. And I don't know what it takes some times. It and in many respects I believe it's actually crisis before we actually are able to regroup sit down and begin to have an intelligent conversation about the issue. Yeah areas that the part of the partisan warfare Washington. I mean that's the Republicans and Democrats right now using. Every parliamentary procedure in tactic they hand to one over the other. You kind of had a breakdown of the normal. Argument and debate in the way of have been built in Washington that used to happen now. We go from crisis to equate that with each party how can we. Create a crisis in order to sports the other side. To capitulate. And the government shut down to one way to create an artificial crisis support for the other side. And if you're kind of does lose it of the basic job of just. Pop the reading the government and funding the programs. You've beaten at least by the because it did but it all worked out. Let me ask you because we get a lot of questions from our listening audience about. The party leadership of the house and the party leadership of the senate I mean with in the same party. It seems like they don't they're not even on the same side of the issues sometimes is that just for show or is that real. And operatives because it's by all want different things you in the I was Beagle in the we had to hit a lot of different factions. That you have you know the freedom caucus. That wide. Pretty conservative goals you have the moderates and how dole. In the senate you're just gonna have different lawmakers were elected statewide it would therefore have different priorities. And so they've got to defend you know McConnell and buying in because I think that they make some mistakes. But they're essentially be the city caucuses that have vastly different agendas because. You've got deeper than that we different constituencies especially in the house were. What a lot of Republicans would that spotlight district a lot of Democrats represent our last districts that there was a lot more active in this in the house. And it's just it's it's it's it's pop a cap. Well Brian Mitch McConnell just announced on the senate floor and on Twitter that they you know have reached a deal on the senate side and within seconds and obviously House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Democrat on on how sides say they oppose his plan. She's been speaking since 10 AM this morning. Got that the filibuster not released today. Longer than any state of the yet. Two out. And it's not even be neglected by. You know but the others the partisanship of Washington and I what is that. House Democrats opposed the deal but senate Democrats support it. So speaker poll there would be kaposi's. Doesn't even we have a little ol' party on board with opposition. Are you that for the taxpayer pretty upset about this new deal. A bit what you might not like 300. Billion dollars. Op busting spending caps themselves. Supposedly. Would be opposing it myself. Yeah I mean you know when you think about this all of the battle that we did on the tax reform. And and things of that nature. A lot of that can go out of the window on the implications just by Boston these caps and increasing the budget by three to 400 billion dollars. That it has. You're level this is going to be bigger then the tax cuts. For the next two years but it cost more than a tax cuts and you know Republicans. Fought so hard to get these spending caps in 2011 he had the big. Deal with the depth with Mitt where Republicans you know we're looking to default on the debt limit unless we get beat spending caps. And President Obama agreed to it but Republicans have spent the last six irritable thinking that we got these great spending caps simply. We view the Republican government house senate and president and you know the caps spite 300 billion dollars. That the conservatives are looking at the back of going on. I'm in the same position. Every time I think I know a little bit about what goes in congress I get hit from sit with something from left field or feel like I know nothing about the operations the congress. As really disappointing to begin you know. Republicans won in fiscal responsibility is that if you're criticizing President Obama and that you put in charge of finally get a cut spending to balance the budget. What happens they it'll junior they leave the debt limit without any spending cuts. They're talking about bringing back pork barrel your. They haven't gotten any program. And I'll the past in the cap byte 300 billion dollars means that even you know more fiscally liberals in the Democrat work. The last couple years with an old problem. How many years did we hear about pork barrel earmarks in it I mean to me that's a huge departure. What the Republicans campaigned on personal. It's remarkable. They lost congress in 2006. In large part. Because of the bridge to no way all the poor Jack Abramoff that that your paper factory. Exit polls in 2006. What Republicans want congress to wait to port typical option as the number one issue why they lost congress. So I find it remarkable. That after banning earmarks in 2010 which they had promised when they got back the majority. A year later they were to digger repeat the same mistakes people. That you expect cost them hundreds. And it might look at the people. Who talked about eight re the with the government aid radio with congress I've never heard someone say well we it is more pork. But that it's a bit like that completely tone down. And as you know this this is this part of this zero sum game just all about the 2018 mid terms. A lot of it I think is that the Republicans are nervous about the election and I think what we get more important political debate in the we can help ourselves in what he team. I think that probably was a comic book I think what people our is that. That is what's going to drive voters to polls. Ever since they got rid of pork. They hope the majority for eight years they've gotten reelected they don't. Pork to win elections he need to do their job. You know what boarding the tax code safeguarding national security. When we talk about his two year deal that they said that their work and out with. The cynical side of me says what does that mean on the election time line. Well I think that means that the there gonna go into Election Day election fees and operating about spending their home. Pop it looks like 260. Billion dollars of the new spending is for defense. Which you lead defense has been cut to the Boe in the last couple years of actually dropping below 3% of GDP for the first time since the 1930s. That he's with cut elsewhere well Republicans are gonna break about the defense increase. Democrats are gonna go home and wait about the 140 billion dollar increase in domestic discretionary spending. You know I don't get 14%. Increase in destruction spending this year. You don't ignore all the way all the government spending every. So. Really this is our or Russo in the public. And the public to get the bill in the budget deficit. Probably had a little more than a trillion dollars the occupied the deficit. A year ago in. Your Apatow was 450. Billion dollars approximately. What have you with 666. Pop billion dollars. We're heading toward the trillion. And I'm talking with social security and Medicare caught wiping Belfast. We're heading toward the deficit of two trillion dollar you're with the been expecting. So it is dead. Putting our toe in the water of a recession. It is. What is gonna cause that would mean you're heading toward. Agrees like collapse you get to a certain point. You're just a country cannot sustain trillion dollar deficits forever op the important points something's gotta give and we did have a trillion dollar deficit. And 2009. But that was happily due to the reception which thankfully eventually went away. He's trillion dollar deficit structural. And they're only going to get worse. And members of the congress right now to frankly don't seem to care. Yeah and and that's that's the attitude economy drives me crazy I mean that they don't even want to answer questions. About that they obviously do. You know the shuck and jive routine on that question and make any move on to something else and nobody really sits down in in hasn't. And intellectual conversation about where where we're headed to. I think law makers have concluded that voters don't really care about spending in deficits. I think that is beside president trump getting elected while promising not to touch. Most major government well but spending. And yet he that you could have Social Security he's not gonna touch Medicare and increase defense and he wants. And so I think law makers are concluding that the public just doesn't care. I don't think it's that simple I think you know what the opposite part heading toward the trillion dollars by I think it's important particular with a lot especially because. At some point that would that is desperately to interest rates. It's gonna start pushing up the deficit to hopefully were taxes. May start to life. Product of that slowdown in the economy. And that people are people in the. You would have to admit that as that number goes up and you get into the Petit trillion dollar level options are diminished. Yeah exactly it's that there's really no way to balance the budget within even the next ten years at this point unless something very drastic is done in fact. It would about the budget that had years you have to litany more than a quarter of the central governments in twenty to 47. And so. That's striking. There are one statistic alone is striking. An especially because we're giving the point were nearly out actually would lose the majority of government spending to. Is going to be Social Security Medicare interest on the debt. There's not a lot of support for reforming Social Security Medicare interest by the that they're growing so fast. Far beyond what the trust fund could buy the people paid into the system. And constituent people in the stock which means ultimately either taxes are gonna go right or but it took to continue right. It's almost as if that our plan is we're gonna start buying. Lottery tickets. You know it's. A law makers like now or distortion short sighted on this they're they're they're focused on November. Let the future take care of itself. And you know I like. A lot of the tax cut that would happen but they were good economic policy opted for good tax policy. There's no way you can sustain the tax cuts the at a certain point that the map. Yes doesn't it and math has no emotion and it doesn't live Brian Reid a thank you so much from the Manhattan institute we really appreciate your insight.