Could global trade war hurt Louisiana's economy?

Newell Normand
Monday, July 16th

Newell talks to LSU Professor of Economics Dr. Jim Richardson about the how tariffs will effect various sectors of our local economy, including soybeans, ports, chemicals and petroleum

00:30:48

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Good morning alliances in the trunk prudent press conference in Helsinki Finland is about to begin and if you want to watch same you can watch it on WW Al dot com. It's about ready to go live we've got a great show today in the last hour we're going to be talking to former US attorney Harry Rosenberg. About the Moeller indictment couple of different questions and mentioned a congressman a mention in news report they mention an organization. In there risk is too communicating with ultimately the Russian hackers a question about whether or not they knew so when. Wasn't planned. Some people are saying they don't believe in coincidences. And will last you what city you in a second or we'd be talking to Ron push a political analyst. About a number of poll results and in particular one very interest in one about whether or not you'd rather live in a capitalistic economic system more socialistic. Economic system. And who we will reveal those results to use them in this hour. Lot of folks here locally. Are very uptight upset in have a lot of things angst and anxiety and rightfully so. And a lot of disagreement on whether or not tariffs are good for the country. But more importantly. The question maybe. It art Harris good Louisiana. And talking to us is doctor Jim Richardson director real issue public administration institute professor of economics at L issue. Jim is always welcome to the show. Do you. Sergio when we think about tariffs obviously there's going to be direct implications in in direct implications so for the benefit Merrill listening audience. Talk about tariffs in general and and then let's talk about direct and indirect implications two weeks. Well I mean basically terror attacks. But it actually it should eventually. Well placed on the thing week in court. But eventually I'd check back for the people there by those who were to the American chamber Denver district or it could or do. Make different changes in earth orbit either. Right right so we think about Louisiana obviously we have a big agricultural economy here. Where wedded to the oil industry is well what are some of the ways that we will be impacted directly as a result of the proposed tariffs. Barry in real outcome to what other cartridge due to injury break spot art marriage. Indeed. For example we export a great deal are I Coca pot. We export radio market well. We also apple porch or exchange agent spurred by an important that you were so it indeed. Yeah country that's like to thank my China. Despite Andy the shop. Their own hair on good ship we ship them opposite effect what we do hear what you should show actually real. One of the element of our advantage what is in terms that are here and there. Are. From our perspective here will be. I went back to. America could ever produced. And earned by the people or are simply trying to find alternative to Biden and. Yes so when we have to import products because we don't make enough of them or our own consumption so for example steel and aluminum. If you're if you have a manufacturing basing your state you're going to be affected. By virtue of the of those import tariffs correct. What particularly. If you're using steel arch so sure maybe not but he Arbil and so he can prepare. Can make actual act and act like you're patriotic concerned. The chemical industry. Interpreter act activate the term that Ellen cheap product so I just went on all of that potentially a chair caught red considerably very quick. Had you know we've had any dead any of the proposed plans to be built that have common. Put it a stop to. The project at this point in time in order to evaluate pricing or cost in my. They all are probably Ali are doing Matt automatic. And they want to know what's gonna happen and they will vote on. They don't make up there with the return of all we keep their eye on the ball. It's an infection rate of return they accurately re enter their billing. Bar are trying to get an alternative like you. And they make a net charge do you know Qwikster to trot. Right it's if you were not very nimble in that regard. One of the issues here full Louisiana bar thirteen billion dollar annual agricultural economy. About eight point three billion is exported so there retaliatory tariffs that you talked about before about what they do in response to us putting the tariffs. Has a huge effect on Louisiana economy. Yet her excellent and I think. And yet. Right there yet but all. And yet they should stay in the fact that what happened there. And well and why we. And that there were very well for example. It might will be. Countries like China. Which you are so that you. What why are. And watching on those are the wire artwork we've. Appropriate number at least not high probability I'd thought it would go. It's not just short term the longer term you have you. Bet that I'm aren't also buried there are you anticipate and project very well. Jim I remember historically when we face some of the same issues that the federal government got involved in discouraging farmers to grow. Crops. We see that as a potential out followed this friction with or overseas. Traders are. I think the company that stretch and had suggested that they com. That rescue it may be over too broad segment there but it all the farmers in terms. Attention the American taxpayer pick up some of that. From the that Austin well we'll protect the dot. Whoever it is still there at that will be taken the taken out chance. And assists you know with the overseas going dud tit for tat on tariffs right now we're were predominantly China and and others. Do you does this raw does is raise the level of importance for NAFTA. Again that's almost it's I think intrepid it transpired about it is just up from. That is one that obviously connect with Canada and the US ban and Mexico. And I I think. Bill shepherd critically. Short are we do we get care almost right now still. Which affect primarily. Aren't our papers. And thank you make an angle. It all or an inflation. Again as our backdrop mystery but the trade. And we can argue about that Bieber. But I guess I look at it from the perspective. We can't really fight against all of our trading partners at the same time. Because there's a certain percentage of what we produce here and in what we import via that we absolutely certainly need without its starting to. Have a significant impact on our economy with a. Yeah I would it again. It's. That it not and they re right now but it may well become Matt Light at the troops which one. Do we want to hit hardest we have been back where a mother. And it's more of a timing issue at the present time as we still don't know the full. Impact of what Ian said we're gonna do that we haven't actually done in many respects and what they say they gonna do in retaliation. So this is that this is a poker game and edit it outright. And I think it's element is they're out from one angle view is that biggest economy. We have that much current. We have the most though he is storage oh. But they Acosta. And that are we going to suspect call in question is what it would yet. Into the we'd better or worse. I think it's one of what they're a very. Debate about. Jim I worry though when we look at micro economies and malicious divided up into the fifty states Louisiana's a fairly poor. State. It would seem to me that would it would put us at a significant disadvantage. We are particularly. Vulnerable because our economy and we are export. We we we we are outraged that. Our port are very important to our economic. Generator. So. We will be hurt by trade war. We are we. Should and other places open our troops on wheels and out but they keep in Europe but your chamber cobbler. But by a group like indicate. We will get it to the district all out trade war. It won't become very horrible because that. Well doctor Jim Richardson thank you so much for joining us we really appreciate your side the and she public administration institute and professor of economics issues and have a great. All Roddy will be right back after the break. Below and a blue runner opinion poll are you concerned little Louisiana's economy could be affected by tariffs. 75%. Of the respondents. Say yes and if you want to see the trump prudent press conference live in Helsinki Finland you can watch it on WW held dot com. We've been watching some of the comments that have been made in prime minister Teresa may said she supports the president and in his meeting. With prudent as long as say he holes. The line as it relates to some of their bad behavior and she called and that the president calls them out for that and tries to create a dialogue the president said who he thought it was very important to meet ending gauge. With Vladimir Putin for the purposes of trying to develop a pathway to stability and peace. And to be able to deal with that and we know that it there's been a number of issues especially as it relates to. Broken agreements in Syria in serious seems to be the foreign. In many you folks side diplomatically is to the actions of the Russian government where we they've actually engaged with US troops over there. If not directly indirectly through some of the financing of organizations that date that they have engaged in. Connect continues to be an issue that I think is one in which we need to get it resolved one way or the other is to what. The methodology is going to be and what role each one of our countries will play in net conflict as it moves forward. And it did reach a Borland point many times and there are those that think it it's heading to that yet again. In in that area and that's not good for our other allies that. Are all share could determine his boundaries are many of which share could determine his boundaries. With Syria at the present time and so. That continues to be an issue and in our own Elizabeth Warren talks about that it should have been canceled. And we're gonna talk in the third hour about. Whether or not you believe it was a coincidence that the rob Rosen Steen the acting director as it relates to the Russian collusion. Investigation. That they had it right own at fresh roll of the president meeting with Vladimir Putin's in trying to deal. With those specific issues we were talking earlier. Would doctor Jim Richardson from L issue about these tariffs. And he made the comment that we are really in exports state. And we're water we're poor state is an observation that I made and I was very concerned about what the impact was going to be to our economy. And it's not gonna take much to set it into a tailspin so to speak if we continue to go down this path with the friction about where. And how in win. All of these tariffs are gonna hit. And hopefully they're not hitting at the same time obviously on steel and aluminum it's a big issue for us with the Irish are shipyards that we have here are some of the chemical plants that are being and build some of the big projects of LNG liquefied natural gas plants that we haven't southwest Louisiana. All of which will affect the pricing of those projects and will continue to be a drag. And those local economies if there aren't fact delayed or. If there's a stoppage that that's put on air because of the manner in which a lot of those contracts were signed they were fixed cost. And and now that they're facing these issues that the cost of little delivery goes up and obviously it's gonna create. Some banks and anxiety and and obviously a desire on on one. Cited the balance sheet to kind of have a sit down and ordered him maybe renegotiate. Some of the terms of these contracts in order to move forward has many many countries meant many companies excuse me may not be it would take that hit. We're also very much an agricultural. Economy thirteen billion dollars. In the agricultural economy of state Louisiana. Eight point three billion of which we export goods. Soybean. Industry a big hit hard sugar not nearly as much because most of that is consumed. Domestically in need we didn't get a chance to talk to doctor Richardson about it but I wanted to we have to get to this break because of the press conference. As to whether or not there is an opportunity for Ross to. Export from Louisiana. Two other states in this in this country are sort of being. Crop and how much of that can be consumed domestically. It's seems as though China's is a huge trading partner with Louisiana on soybean. And we also have. Rice. Our rice crop Pierre rule is we export about 70%. Of that crop as well. So when you think historically about some of the crops that we grow here in Louisiana. And how much of it is exported. Overseas. Through central and south American otherwise. It is. A call for concern as to where this is gonna all play out. And that's why I asked about NAFTA and whether or not that is something that we really need to get resolved. In order to try and diminished the implications of the impact of a lot of this trade war that's coming our way. We'll be right back we wanna know what your thinking it was called 260187. Here at Texas and 87870. Are you concerned that Louisiana's economy could be affected by the tariffs. 74%. Of the respondents say yes. You know as we think about the difficulties of the managing through these tariffs and and placing the terrorists and then having. Retaliatory tariffs placed on on products that we are importing as well. And we're thinking about the fact that trop is actually involved in a press conference at the present time with Vladimir Putin for Russia in Helsinki Finland. Give us a call and tell us what you think about whether or not the president should have moved forward. With this meeting and in whether or not you believe that there's anything that's going to be ultimately. A accomplished. They just reported that Vladimir Putin's said that his government did not. Involve themselves. In and the elections in 2016 which is contrary to what's been released by the Robert Moeller. Investigation ending most recently the indictment on Friday where he specifically names. Twelve Russians involved in the intelligence community of the Russian government. And whether or not do do you believe. At any point that Vladimir Putin's gonna ever admit to being involved in meddling in an election in the United States. You know I'm guessing you kind of asked the question whether or not we whatever release that admit to involving ourselves. Voluntarily like that for the first time without some kind of hearing investigation or otherwise. Where the we've been called ourselves and the election in any other country. I panel that I don't think duke for a minute that Vladimir Putin is going to just step province. We we did that so a lot. And I think that was appointed trumpet trying to make earlier I'm not trying to defend prop trop I just think. It just makes common sense that he there's no way the prudence gonna stand up there and edit. At the podium today and say yes we involve ourselves in in US elections and we metal. And we tried to influence. I don't like Hillary Clinton and I tried to do some third model like Bernie Sanders or model or I'm in love with Donald Trump I don't think that's ever. Going to happen I think it's an unrealistic expectation. That the issue is more political posturing. When you have folks like Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer and others saying. Which you know we shouldn't have that meeting because we need to demand answers as well then you're never an enemy because you can demand all you want he's not gonna give you an answer. And nor would we give them an answer if that was in fact the case. Just at first blush. Everybody would want to just kind of go away and fade away in in the sunset. It's not going to as a result of this investigation. That's being done by the special prosecutor Robert Mueller. And I was moved by the level of detail within that indictment and we'll talk about that with former US terror attorney. Harry Rosenberg and in the third hour. To getting his expert opinion of what what his reaction is to that indictment is well. In specifically it matches congressperson. A member of the media. And a campaign advisor who has 10 met step forward in this question as to whether or not there any others. Give us a call 260187. Here Texas said he 770. Let us know what you were thinking do you think. That this meeting. In the manner in which trump is characterized it that. Their relationship has changed. Two hour meeting. And it's changed. I don't know about you but maybe these two guys ought to be marriage counselors and we can just get rid of a lot of conflict in this country if in two hours. A historic relationship that's not ever been really good. And just change like that. So say that and what say you give us a call 2601878. 8787. And this is Noelle and every Dario. We're talking tariffs were talking Russians. And we're talking in Helsinki. What are your reactions give us a call 260187. Or Tex. Set 87887. Me. On attacks on I'll tell you what to trump could mean meeting means it means the media does not have a clue what is it about it and don't need to know I'll let trump do his thing without conjecture pisses media often trumped those that yeah that's right I mean I get it I understand that. But the facts of the matter ars that when he makes seize absolute statements that the relationship has changed as a result of a two hour meeting. I'm not so sure that that that's exactly what it means I think Woody's. Would. Typically people would say is is that. We've continued to identify. Issues that were trying to resolve our results so that we can move forward with this relationship and try and look at broader picture items at two. You know that's going to be in the best interest to Russia and the United States. Can't just be a two hour meeting and now the relationship. Has changed. Scuttle on one talked a country what say you country. I don't care. Plug. I agree with you wouldn't what you're. Quote threw all the coma in a statement that it is the mutants. Is and who will not in. Doing could be picking up. You. Gonna deal at all. This great country will be united the problem it is is in existence. Right now and build greatest. Burden and security of this country is or president. He isn't hitting moving in. Meetings meet with these killers. And call me a victory well through Newton. Any thing. In the president could go and if you wore as gullible as you. Respect the present. You know problem for Iraq for us from you know for our country. From that perspective it's all talk. But we don't know what he's. Because these gold stool. The other and they're with the he doesn't know what he's talking about so. You doubt that it doesn't I don't know who's going to be. And arguably is that it's. Could it not be that he's just trying to do something different I mean look let's be honest the diplomatic path that is gone on for years and years and years. We have been a contradiction. From the United States' perspective. We have been very hypocritical in the matter in which we've approached any number of diplomatic challenges. Could it not be that he just wants to try something different. I respect. It would you say. No I'm not it I'm not advocating form I'm just asking the question. Because there's some the driving this that I haven't been able put my finger on but I would say that are typical. Approach of diplomacy. Has a oh record that is not very bright. Let's keep. Coming. In. As much as it. Yeah. Yeah. All. Well and in April and being. On the children. Matt being the the and use old. They are secured BP is. I. Had been. Beaten. The book bought old. Oh. These new gold in order to meet you. It's through. Well good gut feeling is it can be good when you're very learned in a particular. Area you have a particular area of expertise but when you're neophyte I get a little bit nervous like country thanks so much for college in Russia what. Irked ahead. Our kids are. Oh cool little meeting with a man like yourself as years of IP important. Policies and procedures under who is expected. Quarters you know just as much. I I get I get what you -- no doubt no no doubt that that prudent is a sophisticated user in that meeting more so that then then Donald Trump our president got that. 12 Jeffrey on a less by what's a huge effort. Thank you to take my crawl this. You know if it amazed me how. People come. To. Balance our success. And try to. Try we do it what it is no complaints that is what he meant. It's equipment debate there's ya ya ya you know army air. Eight in Korea by any. Matured. Go but that goes on both sides right Jennifer. No no. Yeah well a little. A little. Mean what about all of that the the nastiness and nonsense that Chuck Schumer Nancy Pelosi and spewed on out of out of those little Talking Heads. Well but what we're OK. Let me let me give you example. In point. An Emmy week to go tit for tad example on all. That's what treatment and treatment of rapidly directive. They think this talk with the summit in all the this is preordained. Answer nobody went into problems but now we know we knew we'd just like we've been paying and you know all the forty years. There already there a relationship very people he became president it's obvious. If you account and it. Well according to the media they've not really had that much time. Together and trust me when it when the media gets on it. And I'm surprised by this morning they hadn't figured out in the indictment who the congressman is who the the that the reporter is in they know who the organization is they refer to them as Wiki leaks in another two or three days I gonna have all of that. You know batten down so. They would have thought they would have been able Figaro what trumps an uptick. But I gotta get to a break Jeffrey thanks so much I appreciate it we'll be right back to 60187 near Texas at 87870. This is new rule on demand audio. We're back you'll go to the talk lines line through the bottle and or shore let's say you Bob. No this is the first chatted with you since you came on the Arab villagers show almost every day. Well thank you very much is very kind of you. I think the problem. You were facing. Is a problem Oprah. And gives do you trade barriers short analogy I'm sitting here looking at a twenty foot. Point five football warnings measuring tape. Made in China. But I'd trust that the injured measure on this page are accurate. Are bought it. Or somebody gave it to me and I trust that it is accurate and the problem is. I can't trust Pol Pot because what he says. Is not accurate though lives are amenable. Do you believe in it in once again I'm not trotted to defending. He reminds me of he's always trying to find. The good the glitter are. Lining you know kind of puffing. It's not. It can't just be tax it's got to be X which some for enjoyment. And you know an order that it's it's a better acts than all other taxes right. It do you find it that's what he engages in or is it intentionally. To deceit. I think it's intentionally. To proceed to or sell in grand indictment. But it would statement thing he's these are great negotiator. Everything he negotiate boils down to dollars. When he canceled the exercises where South Korean military are retired military also bottle it. But one he. Canceled boat exercise he converted it to say yes or newspapers fourteen million dollars. When we negotiate. We are the most powerful nation in the world economically we're animals powerful and militarily. Well why not negotiate formal position of what is beneficial to both so. Absolutely but I gotta get to a break I apologize thanks so much for colony and I hope that you continue listening and really appreciate your call. We're starting neck cash contest today and here we go ready for a chance to win 1000 dollars an intercom national cash contest. The code word this hour is candy. Tex C a and DY. To seven to 81 at 72881. Text now and you could win. 1000 dollars cash. Listen for the next code word just before the top of the hour every hour now through 6 PM 1000 dollars is a program. When it for your wallet good luck from all of us at WWL we never charge for attacks but individual plan. Text and data rates apply. Please don't text and drive in will be back shortly we're going to be talking. A vote. A number of polls.
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