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The Tigers Could Have a Heisman Hopeful on the Horizon in 2019

July 23, 2019 - 12:25 pm
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by Tim Zimmer

The Heisman formula is pretty simple. Look for a quarterback on a national championship contender and you’ll likely find the winner.

So looking at the list of potential winners, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow could be just that.

Over the last 19 seasons in college football, QBs have won the award 16 times, including five of the last six. The only exception to that rule has been when running backs like Alabama’s Derrick Henry (2015) and Mark Ingram (2009) along with Reggie Bush in 2005 scored the trophy.

So it’s no wonder why the 2019 Heisman favorites are Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Clemson passer Trevor Lawrence. Both faced each other in last season’s national championship and are the betting favorites to do it again this year.

So why would someone like Burrow be considered to win the Heisman trophy? Well, the odds may be in his favor — literally.

Eight of the last 10 Heisman winners opened up as (20/1) or greater odds to win the trophy. The only exceptions were Marcus Mariota in 2014 and Baker Mayfield in 2017. Burrow opened as a (100/1) choice to win the Heisman. But as of July 21, his odds have dropped to (40/1).

Another important factor is wins.

The Heisman winner’s team in the last six seasons has averaged 11 wins heading into the bowl game. LSU went 10-3 last season with Burrow under center. The only exception was current Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in who led Louisville to nine wins in 2016. Excluding Jackson, the other five winners went on to play in the National Championship Game or a College Football Playoff semifinal.

If LSU exceeds expectations this season, the Tigers will be looking at a potential College Football Playoff berth. And assuming LSU receivers coach Joe Brady and the new-look LSU offense is what many are speculating it could be, Joe Burrow and his numbers will improve in his senior year. Last year, he threw for just about 2,900 yards and rushed for 399 yards accumulating 23 total touchdowns.

Expectations are high this season as the Tigers are expected to finish second behind Alabama in the SEC West and will likely start the season in the top seven of most polls.

But if you believe in trends, Joe Burrow could be sitting in New York in early December waiting for his name to be called and join the late Billy Cannon as the only other LSU player with Heisman honors.

Agree or disagree, Burrow has a chance to go down as one of the most beloved QBs in the program’s history.

 

Heisman Odds as of July 22nd per William Hill:

Tagovailoa +260

Lawrence +300

Fields/Martinez/Hurts +1000

Ehlinger/Herbert +1500

Fromm +1800

Taylor +2200

Patterson +2500

Etienne/Eason/Swift/King/Burrow +4000

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