Kristian: Do you see more than 8 wins from LSU this season? I don't.

Kristian Garic
June 18, 2018 - 10:51 pm

The "Wise Guys" in Vegas (the odds makers) have LSU winning just 7 games in year two under coach Ed Orgeron. How's that stick with you? 

If you look at the schedule you can see why.  The Tigers are currently a three point underdog in the season opener in Dallas against Miami.  One odds maker told me that they'll likely be a three point underdog in week three to Auburn.  LSU travels to the Plains this year. 

So, there are two potential losses in the first three weeks of the season.  Then you're not even in the heart of the schedule.  The Tigers should take care of business against La. Tech in week four, but then again Troy beat the Tigers last year in Tiger Stadium.  

From September 29 through November 3rd is the gauntlet.  LSU will play Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama in that stretch from late September through early November.  Four of those five games will be at Tiger stadium so that helps, however if we're looking at this objectively the Tigers will only be favored in two of those games.  LSU should be favored at home against Ole Miss, but under dogs in at least two of the final three games in that stretch, against Georgia and Alabama. 

See what I'm driving at here?  So in this part of the schedule I think LSU would be fortunate to get out of it with just two losses perhaps three.  Mississippi State is no longer the LSU punching bag of old. Again objectively, after this stretch I have LSU with four wins and five losses.  Yep! Hate to say it but Vegas could be right on the money. 

So entering the back end of the schedule, it doesn't look great for LSU.  On November 10th, LSU travels to Arkansas to face the Razorbacks, the following week they'll host Rice, and wrap up the season against Texas A&M in College Station.  Before this stretch I have LSU with a 4-5 record.  If Vegas is going to be right in their 7 win projection, LSU would have to run the table in the final three games, which is possible.  That would land them at 7-5 for the season.  Hard to imagine but highly possible for an LSU program that is on the decline. 

Sure, LSU could steal the game against Miami or Auburn to give them one more win, or perhaps even Florida on the road and that could change the entire complexion of the season.  I just don't see it happening.  The overly optimistic Tiger fans are saying LSU can rack up 9 wins in the regular season.  I just don't see it.  That means the only two likely losses would be against Georgia and Alabama.  With wins against Miami on a neutral site, and Auburn along with Florida on the road. Coupled with two more wins at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss at home.  I don't see nine wins for LSU this year I can't see it. Not that I refuse to see it...I just can't see it. 

So that would put LSU at 7 wins this season, Don't forget Mississippi State throttled LSU 37-7 last year in Starkville. LSU went 9-4 last year, with what I think is a much more talented over all team than the one they're putting on the field this year. With annual questions at QB and now at RB I can't justify 9 wins for LSU this season.  I could make the case for LSU to only have six wins rather than the over at 8.  As I said before Mississippi State is no longer the punching bag it once was for LSU and my scenario for LSU getting to 7-5 includes a win over the Bulldogs.   State could very well beat LSU and put them at 6-6. 

Tiger fans would come unglued at 7-5, but would probably have a total meltdown with a 6 and 6 finish.  They would call for Coach O's job, and the job of Athletic director Joe Alleva. I hate the argument of "I don't like calling for peoples jobs".  In big money that is college football, I have no problem saying that if the Tigers finish at 7-5 or worse than changes absolutely need to happen and happen swiftly.  It's unacceptable to even begin to think about a record that gross for LSU.  Buckle up, this could be a very interesting season for LSU. 

Some LSU fans are going to question my allegiance to the purple and gold.  That's fine! It's not about allegiance it's about calling it like I see it. I'm not a closet Alabama fan, I'm not an LSU or Coach O hater. I'm just not going to lie to you about LSU's program, and the direction it's headed.  LSU is a program in decline, and if it isn't fixed quickly the once powerful LSU brand could quickly turn into another former giant in the SEC in the University of Tennessee.  

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