NHC: Could have a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf this weekend

The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% chance that an area of low pressure will develop into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over the holiday weekend.

In the meantime we are expecting some unrelated rain and storms.

"Get ready for another stormy day across Southeast Louisiana today," WWL-TV Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum said. "Some of the rain will be heavy at times, so watch out for street flooding."

He says tomorrow looks much the same, but after that depends on the tropics.

"The forecast will be greatly impacted on what Invest 90 will do, Nussbaum explained. "More rain and storms will arrive on Sunday. These storms will be combine with the outer bands of the Gulf Low (which will likely be a tropical depression or storm by this time). Heavy rain is expected with any storm all weekend, so watch out for street flooding."

Hopefully Hurricane Hunter aircraft can get better information today that helps with the forecast, but the Hurricane Center is warning everyone from Louisiana through all of Florida to prepare for possible development.

"The forecast models are in better agreement, but not total agreement this morning with where and how strong Invest 90 will be. Landfall looks to be anywhere from Monday Morning to Tuesday Morning anywhere between Slidell and Tallahassee, FL. Once the Hurricane Hunters get into the system later today and this weekend, we will have a much better idea of the strength and timing of the system. What I can tell you is to expect 3-7"+ of rain this weekend through Tuesday, coastal flooding with tides 1-3 feet above normal and strong rip currents regardless of development. Still a lot could change so stay tuned!"

Here is what the Hurricane Center released today:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become better organized.  Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon.

Nussbaum's detailed forecast:

TODAY:

Mostly cloudy and warm with a 70% chance for showers and storms with heavy rain. Highs around 86. Wind S 5-10 mph.

TONIGHT:

Mostly cloudy and muggy with a 40% chance for scattered showers and storms with some heavy rain. Lows north around 68 and south around 73. Wind SW 3-5 mph.


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SATURDAY:

Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with a 70% chance for showers and storms with heavy rain. Highs around 87. Wind N 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY:

Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with a 70% chance for showers and storms with heavy rain. Lows north around 69 and south around 74. Highs around 87.

MONDAY - MEMORIAL DAY:

Mostly cloudy, warm and breezy with a 70% chance for heavy rain and storms. Lows north around 69 and south around 73. Highs around 83.

TUESDAY:

Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 60% chance for heavy rain and storms. Lows north around 70 and south around 73. Highs around 87.

WEDNESDAY:

Partly cloudy and hot with a 30% chance for spotty showers and storms. Lows north around 72 and south around 74. Highs around 91.

THURSDAY:

Partly cloudy and hot with a 20% chance for stray showers or storms. Lows north around 74 and south around 77. Highs around 93.
 

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