Heavy rain expected as tropical system heads for Gulf

Too soon for computer models to get clear picture

We could see a few days of tropical rain across southern Louisiana starting tomorrow.

"I would definitely plan for a lot of rain," WWL TV Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum said. "Starting tomorrow and continuing all day Wednesday and into Thursday."

He says we could see more than eight inches of rain, depending on the development and track of the system.  

Listen to Nussbaum and WWL's Dave Cohen:

Tropics update.mp3

So, far it is a broad area of low pressure moving from the Yucatan Peninsula toward the Gulf.  It doesn't have a closed circulation yet, so the computer models have trouble predicting exactly what will happen.

"It will be entering the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become better organized," Nussbaum said. "At this time, the forecast models are all over the place.  This is due to the fact that there isn't a closed area of low pressure yet with the system."

The National Hurricane Center says the chance of development is high.

"While the low still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, gradual development is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form," Senior Hurricane Specialist Michael Brennan, Ph.D said in an advisory.

He says there is an 80% chance of a depression or storm forming in the next two days and 90% in the next five days.

"Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected."

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