Early voting in the 2020 Presidential Primary “unusually high”

WWL Newsroom
July 07, 2020 - 9:17 pm

JMC Analytics publisher John Couvillon says we’ve seen unusually high early voting turnout for the upcoming July 11th Presidential Primary election.

Couvillon says both primaries have already been decided, and with turnout still high that likely portends a high turnout November election.

“Everybody has known since March that Donald Trump would be facing Joe Biden so when you are seeing early voting turnout that both for the in person and mail in component exceeded what it did in 2016 that is newsworthy,” says Couvillon.

JMC estimates this year we could see turnout at 70 percent in the general election.

Black Democrats make up about 37 percent of the early voting turnout so far, which is much higher than normal. Couvillon says that won’t change any races here, but will have an impact in swing states.

“I do think the Democratic vote will be more mobilized than it was in 2016 and therefore those states cannot be thought of a safe for Trump,” says Couvillon.

44 percent of early voting has come by mail this year, and Couvillon says he forecasts 17 percent of all primary ballots will be mail-in by the time the primary ends. Extrapolating that for the general election he estimates that could result in 100-300-hundred thousand votes cast by mail, which could make it take longer to actually count the votes.

In-person voting has ended, but mail-in ballots can still be submitted for the primary.

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