Cristobal beaten up over land, getting weaker

Tropics

If Cristobal does reform over the Gulf and had for Louisiana, WWL TV Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum says the impacts could be:

  • Rain fall rates 2-4 inches per hour
  • Flash flooding
  • Possible rain totals through Tuesday of 10+ inches
  • Winds 45-65+ mph
  • Coastal flooding 1-3 feet above normal outside hurricane protection

However, the National Hurricane Center is starting to wonder if what was Tropical Storm Cristobal will be able to regain much strength over the Gulf tomorrow and this weekend.

"The atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive for strengthening," Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Richard Pasch wrote. "The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little deep convection near the center."

He says some additional weakening could occur during the next 12-24 hours.  

After that there is expected to be wind shear and some mid-level dry air over the Gulf which both would inhibit storm growth.  

Despite all of that, Pasch still forecasts a general movement toward Louisiana.

"The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night."

The current forecast calls for a landfall Sunday into Monday as a Tropical Storm in the middle of Louisiana, but the Hurricane Center is not sure that will be the case.

"Due to the limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf coast."

Regardless, Pasch says, "There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend."

Tropics
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