Alberto landfall predicted near MS - AL line, LA could get storm force winds and rain

The National Hurricane Center's first forecast track for Subtropical Storm Alberto calls for the system to head for the northern Gulf Coast and come ashore near the Mississippi - Alabama line on Monday.

"On this forecast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday," according to the NHC advisory.

Federal forecasters say the storm currently has winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

"Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours."

When it makes it to the Gulf Coast Monday, they expect top sustained winds close to 70 miles per hour.

The advisory says if this track and forecast hold, New Orleans would see winds close to 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts on Monday.

Here's a look at the expected winds:

RAINFALL:  

Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida.  Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. 

SURF:  

Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. 

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