Low pressure system designated "potential tropical cyclone"

System drifting north, future track uncertain

Chris Miller
October 06, 2018 - 3:29 pm

An area of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is referring to it as a "potential tropical cyclone."

"An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea east of northern Belize," said National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Jack Beven. "The associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization and the wind circulation is gradually becoming better defined.

"Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday while the system moves slowly northward."

"It's still very uncertain as to exactly where it's going to go," said Channel 4 meteorologist Chris Franklin. "Models continue to say it should stay to the east of southeast Louisiana, which would keep us on the drier side. But things can change as the system is trying to get better organized.

"History remains on our side with regards to a land falling hurricane near New Orleans this late in the season. Looking back at recorded history, from October 8 onward, only three hurricanes have made landfall within 100 miles of New Orleans."

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